Posts Tagged ‘optimism



16
Feb
11

‘fed substantially upgrades growth forecasts for 2011’

NYT: The Federal Reserve revealed Wednesday that its policy makers had substantially upgraded their forecasts for how much the United States economy will grow this year, even though they expect that unemployment will remain painfully high for some time.

The core projections of top Fed officials now call for growth of 3.4 percent to 3.9 percent this year, up from the previous forecast of 3 percent to 3.6 percent, released in November. But the grim outlook for the job market was largely unchanged; Fed officials expect unemployment to be 8.8 percent to 9 percent this year, only slightly less than the November estimate of 8.9 percent to 9.1 percent.

Growth expectations were lifted by an improvement in consumer spending in the fourth quarter…

Full article here

04
Feb
11

9.0

WH: Today’s employment report shows that the unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.0 percent and private sector payrolls increased by 50,000 in January. Revisions to private sector payroll data show that 1.1 million jobs were added during 2010, the strongest private sector job growth since 2006. The 0.8 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate over the past two months is a welcome development; however, the rate remains unacceptably high.

More here

Reuters: Despite the conflicting signals in the Labor Department’s report on Friday, economists agreed a recovery in the labor market was proceeding apace if not gaining speed. Many investors also saw the data as a sign of strength …. a household survey, which is used to determine the jobless rate, showed nearly 600,000 more people reported they were employed.

That surge in employment pushed the unemployment rate to 9 percent from 9.4 percent in December. The rate has dropped 0.8 percentage point since November, the biggest two-month decline since 1958.

…Data on manufacturing and retail sales has suggested the economy’s strong momentum continued into the new year. Economists said January’s employment report, excluding the weather effect, was consistent with the economy growing above 3 percent.

“We see significant potential strength in this report and will be looking to see whether the drop in the unemployment rate persists,” said Michael Gapen, an economist a Barclays Capital in New York. “If it does, then it will be a further signal that underlying job growth is stronger than reported and conditions in labor markets are better than advertised by the establishment survey.”

Last month’s drop in the unemployment rate was encouraging because it reflected more people finding work, even after adjustments for updated population controls.

More here

24
Jan
11

headway

USA Today: Economists are more optimistic about the recovery than they were just a few months ago, significantly upgrading their forecasts for 2011 as consumers open their wallets.

When asked to predict, nine of 10 economists said they’re more optimistic than three months ago, according to a USA TODAY survey of 46 economists conducted Jan. 13-19.

….”This growth is now becoming self-reinforcing,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “Businesses are going to take their stronger sales and begin to hire more aggressively, generate more income, and we’re off and running.”

…The economists say the more robust growth will help cut the unemployment rate to 9% by year’s end from 9.4% in December. They expect employers to add 200,000 jobs a month by the second half of the year, more than double last year’s rate.

…the brighter outlook is largely a response to a recent flurry of positive reports. Car and truck sales rose 11.1% last month from the year-ago period. Holiday retail sales appear to have jumped 5%, their best showing since 2005. Factory output is rising. Even the sluggish housing market has picked up.

…cash-rich U.S. corporations are feeling more confident in the recovery’s durability. That will prompt them to hire more, says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s.

Full article here

04
Jan
11

that auto bailout? a disaster! (well, for those who opposed it)

Bloomberg: General Motors, Ford and Chrysler reported sales gains in December that topped analysts’ estimates as demand for the automakers’ new models increased.

GM’s deliveries in the month rose 7.5 percent to 224,185 … the largest U.S. automaker was expected to post a 4.3 percent sales increase, the average of four analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Ford’s sales gained 3.5 percent, topping the 3.3 percent average estimate of five analysts.

“This is a market that’s coming back significantly,” said Rebecca Lindland, an analyst with IHS Automotive. “And with really strong products coming from GM, Ford and Chrysler, there’s a lot of opportunity for change in the marketplace.”

….Rising consumer confidence and retail spending bode well for car sales and may help boost 2011 industrywide sales …. Banks are starting to lend more freely, giving buyers with weaker credit an opportunity to purchase new cars…

Full article here

From November – MSNBC: A GM success story? The biggest political story that few are talking about right now? GM’s initial public stock offering … looks like it’s going to be a big success and a case where the government may just make money on this deal. This has the potential of being a very good story for the Obama White House, as well as a success of government intervention. Where would the unemployment rate be in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio if GM not gotten major government assistance?

Meanwhile ….. Bloomberg: American factories unexpectedly received more orders in November, signaling that gains in consumer spending, business investment and exports will sustain the manufacturing recovery.

….Manufacturing has been resilient throughout the recovery as factories are seeing demand improve, pointing to further growth in 2011 … it expanded in December at the fastest pace in seven months…

….Bookings for capital goods, a measure of future business investment, rose 2.6 percent … demand for computers and electronics climbed 6.3 percent, the most since February 2009.

….Rising exports, which reached a two-year high in October, and improving consumer spending has prompted some companies to boost production to meet demand and also increase their own orders to replace aging equipment.

Full article here

03
Jan
11

optimism….

CNN: After three years of economic pain, a growing number of economists think 2011 will finally bring what everyone’s been hoping for: More jobs and a self-sustaining recovery.

“We’re looking at some leading indicators on employment, and they’re all flashing green lights,” said Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group…

Though most economists still expect a painfully high unemployment rate of about 9% at the end of this year, some think that stat masks more important signs of strength.

Baumohl and some other economists forecast between 2.5 million and 3 million jobs being added to U.S. payrolls in 2011, about triple the gains likely to be recorded in 2010 and what would be the best one-year jump since the white hot labor market of 1999.

That wouldn’t be enough to climb out of the 8-million job crater created by the Great Recession and won’t bring down the unemployment rate by a significant amount … but the forecasted hiring boom could get the economy back into gear and provide real relief for many Americans.

….The more bullish outlook is widespread. Of the 19 economists who responded to CNNMoney’s surveys at the end of both the third quarter and fourth quarters, 16 had raised their growth forecast for 2011 from three months earlier.

Full article here

03
Jan
11

hopeful …

Gallup: Majority of Americans Say 2011 Will Be Better Than 2010 ….  Americans enter the new year with considerably more optimism than pessimism about what it may bring: 58% say 2011 will be better than 2010, 20% say 2011 will be worse, and 21% say it will be the same.

(I’m guessing the 6% who say things will be “a lot worse” in 2011 are actually hoping they will be …. you know, the ‘I hope Obama fails’ mob)

15
Dec
10

green shoots

Reuters: The United States will lead the rich world’s economic recovery over the next two years while Japan and major European economies flounder by comparison, according to Reuters polls of more than 200 economists.

Backed by strong retail sales that rose for the fifth straight month in November, the poll showed expectations U.S. consumers will step up demand, prompting a wave of upgraded forecasts for economic growth there.

…”Three months ago the key issue for markets was whether the softness in economic activity was temporary or a sign of something more concerning,” said Barclays’ Head of Research Larry Kantor.

“The vast majority of recent data readings, however, have made it clear that it was no more than a pause — one that signaled a transition from the initial inventory and stimulus-led surge in growth to a more sustainable, but still solid, expansion.”

The Reuters survey showed U.S. gross domestic product growth averaging 2.7 percent next year, up markedly from the 2.3 percent seen in the November poll. Analysts expect the economy to pick up steam in each quarter through to the end of 2011.

…The poll was conducted after President Barack Obama stuck a deal on taxes last week with opposition Republicans, a bill that looks headed for overwhelming passage through the Senate on Wednesday.

While the new fiscal plan has divided both political and economic opinion, analysts suggested it would support consumer spending next year, which accounts for around two-thirds of economic activity.

Thanks for the link Hachikō 😉

14
Dec
10

‘momentum’

Bloomberg: Sales at U.S. retailers increased more than forecast in November and optimism among small businesses rose to a three-year high, signaling the economy was gaining momentum as the holiday season began.

The 0.8 percent gain in purchases followed a 1.7 percent jump in October that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The National Federation of Independent Business’s sentiment gauge rose by 1.5 points to 93.2, the highest since December 2007, as more companies projected sales will grow.

….“There’s no question this will be the strongest quarter for consumer spending since before the recession,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, who correctly forecast the increase in sales. “The economy has pretty good momentum going into the new year.”

Full article here




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