but where are the jobs?

Reuters: U.S. private employers added far more jobs than expected in June, bouncing back from a surprise slump the month before, a report by payrolls processor ADP showed on Thursday.

The private sector added 157,000 jobs last month, exceeding expectations for a gain of 68,000, according to a Reuters survey of economists.

…. U.S. stock index futures added to gains following the report, while the dollar gained more ground against the yen.

Friday’s jobs report is expected to show a modest rise in overall nonfarm payrolls of 90,000 for last month and a gain in private payrolls of 110,000….

On Wednesday, a stable employment reading from the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector survey suggested employment growth later in the year….. More here

Bloomberg: U.S. stock-index futures extended gains after an industry report showed companies added more jobs than forecast in June, bolstering confidence in the economic recovery…. More here

*****

Bloomberg: U.S. initial jobless claims fell for the first time in three weeks, a sign the labor market is making a little headway.

Jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 418,000 in the week ended July 2, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a drop to 420,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls and those getting extended payments also declined.

looking up

positive signs

AP: Americans are finally getting some relief from high gas and food prices.

Wholesale food prices fell last month by the most in nearly a year, and gas prices keep dropping after peaking in May. A separate survey suggests CEOs are feeling more optimistic and will hire more in the second half of this year. It amounted to welcome news after a rough patch that has stoked worries the economic recovery is slowing…

Food prices at the wholesale level fell 1.4 percent, the Labor Department said. It was the largest drop since last June….

…Gas prices at the wholesale level rose in May by the smallest amount in eight months. At the pump, they’re coming down. On Tuesday, the national average was $3.70 a gallon, according to AAA. Gas has fallen steadily since the national average almost hit $4 a gallon in early May….

…There were some encouraging signs that hiring could pick up in the second half of the year. The Business Roundtable, which represents CEOs for the 200 biggest U.S. companies, said 51 percent of chief executives plan to step up hiring in the second half of the year.

Last quarter, the figure was 52 percent said they planned to hire more over the following six months, the highest since the trade group began polling its members in 2002.

…ManpowerGroup, one of the nation’s largest staffing companies, said the proportion of businesses that plan to hire in the next three months is higher than at any time since the end of 2008, during the recession.

Full article here

Thank you Dotser – as she put it, “I see there must have been infiltrators at the AP who allowed a positive economic story to get through the conservative guards there” 😉

not that we should trust economists, but…..

Bloomberg: Slowdowns in consumer spending and employment will prove temporary, giving way to a U.S. growth rebound in the second half of 2011, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said.

After growing at a 2.3 percent annual pace this quarter, the world’s largest economy will expand at a 3.2 percent rate from July through December, according to the median forecast of 67 economists polled from June 1 to June 8.

Rising exports, stable fuel prices, record levels of cash in company coffers and easier lending rules will be enough to overcome the damage done by one-time events like poor weather and the disaster in Japan….

“The economic headwinds are well known, but if you look at the tailwinds, they are still pretty strong,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. “There are a lot of reasons to be fairly upbeat about the recovery. Growth will pick up in the second half.”

….Increasing overseas demand is another reason for optimism ….. Exports climbed to a record in April, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday….

More here

progress

Marketwatch: Applications for unemployment compensation fell sharply last week, partly reversing a large spike earlier in April and suggesting some improvement in U.S. hiring trends.

The number of people who filed initial requests for jobless benefits fell by 44,000 to a seasonally adjusted 434,000 in the week ended May 7, the Labor Department said Thursday

‘in a survey of bosses, good news for job seekers’

NYT: American companies say they plan to hire. If they do as they say, the unemployment picture will brighten considerably.

In a quarterly survey of chief executives, the Business Roundtable found that 52 percent of companies planned to hire workers in the United States over the next six months, while just 11 percent said they expected to reduce employment.

Never before have so many chief executives said they planned to hire, or so few said they planned to cut payrolls. The survey has been taken every three months since late 2002.

The Business Roundtable includes chief executives of 200 major American companies. If most of them did add workers, that would almost certainly have a substantial effect on employment in the country. Two other broader surveys of companies are taken each month by the Institute for Supply Management. Its survey of manufacturers has been showing more companies planning to increase employment than reduce it since the fall of 2009, and indeed manufacturing employment rose in 2010 for the first full year since 1997, according to the Labor Department.

….In response to another question, 92 percent of the chief executives said they expected increases in sales for their companies, while none said they expected a decline. It was the first time that none of the executives thought sales would decline.

Full article here

rusty’s going to be in tears again….

Marketwatch: The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 382,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected new applications for jobless benefits to drop to 385,000. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, declined by 5,750 to 389,500. The Labor Department also reported that the number of Americans who continue to receive state unemployment checks decreased by 9,000 to 3.72 million in the week of March 26, the lowest level since October 2008. Altogether, 8.52 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week of March 19, down nearly 246,000 from the prior week.

***

In case you missed last night’s update (below): I did it again, I ventured in to Teapublican territory on the interwebs just to see how they were reacting to yet more Boehner tears. They are not happy bunnies:

“Now I am envisioning him welling up and boo-hooing at this very moment in front of Reid and Obama. All they have to do is tell him how much they respect and admire him. They’ll have him down to one billion in cuts by eleven p.m.”

“God help us. We need someone with ice water in his veins, not mother’s milk.”

“Come on, GOP; dump this guy. He is an embarrassment.”

“C’mon man, enough with the damn crying.”

“Recall how obama threw him a bone during the SOTU message. He didn’t dry up for a day.”

“Oh Geez. Get a Grip, Boner!”

“OMG”

“john boohoo is not the man to lead us out of this disaster. He needs to step down – ASAP!”

“WTF? I understand crying once, say at a soldier’s memorial or something, but over every single thing?”

😆

‘optimism among u.s. chief executives tops pre-slump high’

Bloomberg: Optimism among U.S. chief executive officers surpassed the highest level reached before the recession as more business leaders projected increased sales, investment and hiring, a survey showed.

The Business Roundtable’s economic outlook index increased to 113 in the first quarter, the highest point since records began in 2002 … Readings greater than 50 coincide with an economic expansion. The previous peak was 104 in the first three months of 2005.

“Companies have given strong signals about their willingness to expand,” said Ivan Seidenberg, chairman of the Business Roundtable. “As we keep a steady flow of capital investment, we’ll certainly see sales forecasts go up, and as we do that we’ll start to see hiring.”

None of the 142 CEOs surveyed said they expected a decline in sales in the next six months, and 92 percent projected an increase, paving the way for more hiring and investment in equipment. A gain in capital spending plans points to further strength in manufacturing, the industry that’s propelled the economic expansion.

…Fifty-two percent of CEOs said they will add to payrolls, up from 45 percent in the fourth quarter and the largest share on record. Some 62 percent said they plan to spend more on equipment, up from 59 percent.

The business leaders’ forecast supports March employment data. Companies in the U.S. added 201,000 workers this month after a revised 208,000 gain in February…

‘the recovery is gaining momentum’

President Obama arrives back at the White House after a trip to Florida  March 4

Washington Post: The missing piece of the U.S. economic recovery – job creation – is finally falling into place.

Employers added 192,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.9 percent from 9 percent, marking the third straight month of decline.

The jobs report was the most promising since the recession began more than three years ago and the most solid evidence yet that the recovery is gaining momentum.

….economists and executives see the new data as confirmation of an underlying trend that had been visible anecdotally and in various other surveys: Private employers are gaining confidence and beginning to hire.

…The unemployment rate has now declined nearly a full percentage point since November, the steepest drop over a three-month span since 1983.

Many analysts had viewed the rapid decline in the unemployment rate in December and January as too good to be true, expecting the February number to inch back up to 9.1 percent.

…hiring in the private sector was strong and broad-based. Private employers added 222,000 jobs … Every major sector of private industry except retail added positions….

Since late last year, the monthly reports had provided a muddied picture of the U.S. economy. But the quicker pace of job gains reported Friday now matches other encouraging measures of growth, such as surveys of businesses and weekly reports on unemployment insurance benefits.

“It’s a very fair representation of where the economy is,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo.

Full article here

NYT: “Economic recoveries can be like a snowball rolling down a hill, in that it takes time to get some momentum,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “People hesitate until they feel that the recovery’s durable enough, and then they have a tendency to jump in. Maybe we’re finally getting to that jumping-in moment.”

….Threats to a more robust recovery remain, of course, including a surge in energy and food prices, …. but for now, the improvement is notable….

Economists say the unemployment rate could rise temporarily in the next few months, as stronger job growth lures some discouraged workers to look for jobs again…….federal employees may also be at risk of significant layoffs if Republican leaders in Congress are successful with their proposed budget cuts. Economists at Goldman Sachs and elsewhere have warned that such budget cuts could ripple through the economy and lead to layoffs in the private sector.

Full article here

‘our best days lie ahead’

BBC: The billionaire investor, Warren Buffett, has urged Americans to ignore “prophets of doom”, and believe that the country’s “best days lie ahead”.

In an upbeat annual letter to the shareholders of his investment firm, Mr Buffett said he was itching to make more large acquisitions. The 26-page missive is seen as an authoritative guide to the state of the world’s biggest economy.

He is one of the world’s wealthiest and most influential investors – as such, his opinion is closely followed.

Despite the American economy struggling to emerge from the recession following the financial crisis, Mr Buffett believes the time is now right to make some major investments. In his annual letter to his Berkshire Hathaway investors, he said his trigger finger was now itchy to invest in new projects, using some of the fund’s 38bn dollars in cash reserves. The news that Mr Buffett is seeking substantial new opportunities will be welcomed by many global investors.