Raw Story: American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades …. Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.
His model … relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win. Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said – more than enough for reelection.
Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet. Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.
The Obama Diary 
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