‘it’s all over’

Raw Story: American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades …. Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model … relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win. Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said – more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet. Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.

supermodel

Raw Story: American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades …. Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model … relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win. Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said – more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet. Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.

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Thank you Esmerelda 😉

not that we should trust economists, but…..

Bloomberg: Slowdowns in consumer spending and employment will prove temporary, giving way to a U.S. growth rebound in the second half of 2011, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said.

After growing at a 2.3 percent annual pace this quarter, the world’s largest economy will expand at a 3.2 percent rate from July through December, according to the median forecast of 67 economists polled from June 1 to June 8.

Rising exports, stable fuel prices, record levels of cash in company coffers and easier lending rules will be enough to overcome the damage done by one-time events like poor weather and the disaster in Japan….

“The economic headwinds are well known, but if you look at the tailwinds, they are still pretty strong,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. “There are a lot of reasons to be fairly upbeat about the recovery. Growth will pick up in the second half.”

….Increasing overseas demand is another reason for optimism ….. Exports climbed to a record in April, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday….

More here

‘fed substantially upgrades growth forecasts for 2011’

NYT: The Federal Reserve revealed Wednesday that its policy makers had substantially upgraded their forecasts for how much the United States economy will grow this year, even though they expect that unemployment will remain painfully high for some time.

The core projections of top Fed officials now call for growth of 3.4 percent to 3.9 percent this year, up from the previous forecast of 3 percent to 3.6 percent, released in November. But the grim outlook for the job market was largely unchanged; Fed officials expect unemployment to be 8.8 percent to 9 percent this year, only slightly less than the November estimate of 8.9 percent to 9.1 percent.

Growth expectations were lifted by an improvement in consumer spending in the fourth quarter…

Full article here