Posts Tagged ‘economists


‘jobs v negligence and ignorance’

Steve Benen: …. support for the American Jobs Act continues to be much stronger among economists than members of Congress … I suspect the White House will be awfully pleased with this Bloomberg News headline this morning: “Obama Jobs Plan May Prevent 2012 Recession.”

“President Barack Obama’s $447 billion jobs plan would help avoid a return to recession by maintaining growth and pushing down the unemployment rate next year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.”

…. the overall consensus among the experts is that the Americans Jobs Act would create hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of jobs, and boost economic growth….

…. the Bloomberg report once again brings the debate into focus. The economy is struggling, there are fears it may start to shrink, and the nation needs Washington to act. The president has presented a credible plan that, according to knowledgeable experts who get paid to answer these questions correctly, would give the economy a much-needed boost at an important time.

The choice for Congress seems to down to recovery and jobs vs. negligence and ignorance.

Full post here


not that we should trust economists, but…..

Bloomberg: Slowdowns in consumer spending and employment will prove temporary, giving way to a U.S. growth rebound in the second half of 2011, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said.

After growing at a 2.3 percent annual pace this quarter, the world’s largest economy will expand at a 3.2 percent rate from July through December, according to the median forecast of 67 economists polled from June 1 to June 8.

Rising exports, stable fuel prices, record levels of cash in company coffers and easier lending rules will be enough to overcome the damage done by one-time events like poor weather and the disaster in Japan….

“The economic headwinds are well known, but if you look at the tailwinds, they are still pretty strong,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Inc. “There are a lot of reasons to be fairly upbeat about the recovery. Growth will pick up in the second half.”

….Increasing overseas demand is another reason for optimism ….. Exports climbed to a record in April, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday….

More here


green shoots

Reuters: The United States will lead the rich world’s economic recovery over the next two years while Japan and major European economies flounder by comparison, according to Reuters polls of more than 200 economists.

Backed by strong retail sales that rose for the fifth straight month in November, the poll showed expectations U.S. consumers will step up demand, prompting a wave of upgraded forecasts for economic growth there.

…”Three months ago the key issue for markets was whether the softness in economic activity was temporary or a sign of something more concerning,” said Barclays’ Head of Research Larry Kantor.

“The vast majority of recent data readings, however, have made it clear that it was no more than a pause — one that signaled a transition from the initial inventory and stimulus-led surge in growth to a more sustainable, but still solid, expansion.”

The Reuters survey showed U.S. gross domestic product growth averaging 2.7 percent next year, up markedly from the 2.3 percent seen in the November poll. Analysts expect the economy to pick up steam in each quarter through to the end of 2011.

…The poll was conducted after President Barack Obama stuck a deal on taxes last week with opposition Republicans, a bill that looks headed for overwhelming passage through the Senate on Wednesday.

While the new fiscal plan has divided both political and economic opinion, analysts suggested it would support consumer spending next year, which accounts for around two-thirds of economic activity.

Thanks for the link Hachikō 😉


jobless claims lowest for three months

Bloomberg: Claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to a three-month low, a sign the U.S. labor market may be starting to mend.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 21,000 to 434,000 in the week ended Oct. 23, the lowest since early July when fewer auto plants than normal closed for retooling, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance dropped to a two-year low, while those getting extended payments also fell.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, is beginning to stir and may give employers reason to add workers ahead of the holiday shopping season. Fewer firings are an initial step toward more hiring as companies such as Ford Motor Co. see sales improve.

“Certainly these are encouraging numbers,” said Brian Jones, senior economist at Societe Generale SA in New York…….

…….Economists forecast claims would increase to 455,000







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July 2022