Two Terms: McCormick Place, Chicago, Nov 6, 2012
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MoooOOOooorning!
06
Nov
13
106 Responses to “Early Bird Chat”
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The Obama Diary 
God Morning Chips.
Mooooooorning Roberta, mooooooorning any other early birds who wake up!
Ha, I just got up and was reading last nights thread. By the charts, what the hell is wrong with White Women they would vote for the Cooch? Do you think the machines also had a problem flipping votes like Col.Davis says? Interesting take. O do those people hate the Clinton’s that much & President Obama.? What a mixed up election night.
Roberta, all governor elections in VA have low turnout because they are in “off” years and don’t attract the attention that the presidential and even the senate races do. I think the Cooch purges, plus the machine flipping, plus the voter suppression, plus the apathy combined to suppress the Dem vote. The Obama campaigns bypassed the state party structure and set up their own organizations in states. That’s what the Dem candidate in 2016 will have to do and a Dem governor (by whatever margin) will help keep the worst voter suppression at bay, especially now that there’s a Dem Senate in VA. Any Dem candidate will also have to totally sweep aside the Dem state party in NJ and build their own.
Thanks for the explanation. I really hope we can get a get out the vote drive for changing the voting day or making it a holiday and mandatory voting. People have to understand, this is their Government. Sorry for the rant. I am sick NJ elected that shit face Gov again.
You’re right Jackie. Also, the proportion of white women in VA who voted for the D candidate actually increased from what it was in 2009. This is a very significant trend that is being overlooked in all this hand-wringing. I think people need to step back and see the big picture here – which is BAD news for the GOP regardless of what the media says or spins.
As we know, the media’s spin is one-sided, and the worse it is for the GOP, the more extreme the media becomes in their spinning.
OOOOPs 🙂 Good Morning.
GM Roberta and Chips.
Moooooooorning COS!
A 40% turnout in VA is pathetic. If VA registered dem voters are more than the registered repub voters, the dem turnout only gets lower and worse.
Tweet this to Charlie Crist?
It’s meant more for the dem voters. I am sure crist and all other pols know the importance of turnout. But to put the entire burden of GOTV on them in unreasonable and unrealistic, given the money, time and volunteers constraints. Voters need to step up for their own interest.
Wow, a Democratic gov. In West Va.
Democrats still win on the local level in WV. It’s on the presidential level where the state hasn’t supported a democrat in years.
Sure hope Georgia joins the club soon!
Good morning TOD family. What a night. I am still mad at NJ Dems. They are a selfish lot.
Good Morning MTM!
It’s outrageous what the NJDems did. Stupid, stupid, stupid!
Dudette, Christie is going to suffer from extreme over exposure and the long knives of the Pauls and Cruzes will come out in full force. I am convinced that Christie will not translate well out of NJ. Let him lose his temper a few times, especially at a woman, and the bloom (which only exists in NJ and the mind of the media) will come of that stinking rose.
Morning! Happy Hump Day…already:)
G’morning Chips & TOD! This is very significant – but the MSM won’t focus on it.
Fantastic!
this is a wonderful pic
More promising news from VA. 🙂
HF, plus, there are provisional ballots and overseas absentees. I don’t know if Virginia counts all its absentee ballots on election night, but it was provisional ballots, plus absentees that put Al Franken over the top in Minnesota, if you recall.
UT, on the other hand, in every single election I have worked in–presidential, state level, local–it’s married white women who bear the heaviest load when it comes to knocking on doors and making phone calls. This is especially true in areas where there are white majorities. The married white women come in the earliest, stay the latest and work very hard. They cook the food, distract the kids, clean the headquarters, make sure the phones are working, man the computers and keep the call and walking lists update. My point is that it’s risky to make too many assumptions based on marital status from Virginia’s statistics. I think the problem in Virginia was McAuliffe himself. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner won big in VA and they are now the two Dem senators.
OMG!
I’m going to try this on the copier at work:) I have a few choice words to say to that thing anyway!
😀
This is what the GOP loves. They purge 40,000 voters and BAM. Crossing my fingers that Mark Herring wins.
After Cuccinelli, I can’t even imagine why Virginians would vote for another Republican AG .
THIS. If we want to take it to the basic level, ObamaCare won big last night. Democrats won the majority of races.
AND, this morning, Barack Obama is still the president of the United States, ObamaCare is still the law of the land, and now we have a Dem gov in VA to help aggressively implement that law.
YAY!!!!
Thanks. Chips. Oh what a fabulous day it was.
OMG—you should hear Chuck Todd on the Today Show—-“the Democrats are in A PANIC today about how Obamacare almost cost them the Va. gov. race.” That’s all he had to say about that WIN, then went on to crown Christie King of the World. Sickening. He makes every event anti-Obama.
Chuckie was practically humping Christie’s leg when he was on the road with him ….
Eew! But sounds about right! 🙂
Linda did not exaggerate – I saw some video footage, and I’m telling you right now that Chuckie was creaming his pants, smiling like a damn 10-yr old girl at a Beiber concert…and Christie back was turned and he wasn’t even paying attn to Chuck….
That is the same one I saw hopefruit……..
Awful! May she R.I.P.
This is my favorite photo from election night 2012. Thanks, Chips!
Good morning TOD.
Morning Squeeeee!
I like; squeeee!
Yay!!!!!!
Graphic from that article. See Georgia in there?
Because the MSM wants you ignorant let me repeat what so many here have touched on:
1) Crispy , an incumbent, won his race against an abandoned, unsupported, practically anonymous candidate. Big whoop.
2) Terry MacAuliffe won an Open seat against a very well known financially supported incumbent AG.
3) Bill de Blasio won a landslide for Mayor of NYC.
Making Crispy the BIG story is the definition of Propaganda.
The so-called news agencies promote only what is profitable for them. Lies of omission and commision.
Vicki, it’s getting glaringly obvious to everyone that the media is openly biased. That’s why we have to click them off and get out the truth ourselves. All this slavering over Christie will do as much good as all the slavering over Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Hillary in 2008. He will be over-exposed and for someone with his personality flaws that is a lethal thing to have happen. The media would be doing him a favor if they tempered their worship. Three years is a long time for someone like Christie to be in the news. He is not a pleasant person and people are going to become sick of him. Meantime, this is the best thing in the world for whoever is the Dem candidate. They need to start the game quietly and build the infrastructure that will carry them to victory.
jackie, I agree and for the record I am already sick of Crispy.
If i had to guess now I wouldn’t put Chrispy of Hillary in the front for 2016. I think it will be fresher younger faces: Julian Castro Wendy Davis, Kirsten Gillibrand, Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’malley……….
THINK PROGRESS VIRGINIA ELECTION ANALYSIS
==========================================
1) Why Terry McAuliffe Won In Virginia
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/11/05/2873211/mcauliffes-victory-progressive/
2) Why Ken Cuccinelli Lost The Election
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/11/05/2888221/cuccinelli-defeat-wing-record/
Ha!
https://twitter.com/cwcook1000/status/398076923957374976
Ha….. I guess he did not want to spend another 7 hours trapped in his hotel room like when he was in Vancouver surrounded by protesters calling for his arrest.
Is he referring to Hillary Rodham Clinton for HRC? helped him so much for his win? Jesus those people make me sick.
HRC = Human Rights Campaign (LGBT Advocacy Group0
Sorry, that’s (LGBT Advocacy Group) 🙄
https://twitter.com/Dudette9t9/status/398084955428761601
Dudette, leave it to HuffPost to have the world’s most biased descriptive intro–“Beset,” “massive website failure” “hard-to-keep” promises–all before the subject of the sentence.
Good point.
jackiegrumbacher – those are the exact words that jumped out at me and my immediate thought was bullshyte.
Propaganda all the time everywhere we have a lot to overcome….And We Will
I’m seeing a lot of hand-wringing about the VA gov race and Christie’s NJ win, with too much focus on minutiae and not enough appreciation for the big picture – which is OVERWHELMINGLY in the Democrats favor.
1. CHRISTIE’s Win – This was not a surprise, and contrary to media (or some other) reports I’ve been seeing, this does not in any way shape or form indicate that Christie will be a formidable Presidential candidate. Christie’s win was the result of NJ’s peculiar state politics, AND also because of what happened in NJ during hurricane Sandy. The media will NEVER admit it, but Christie sealed his fate when he decided to appear to cooperate with PBO at a time when the state was hurting, with all the pictures, nice words, etc, etc., and that is still fresh in NJ’s mind. Christie’s win in NJ was a statement about how NJ-ians felt about his attitude towards PBO (whether we want to call it naive or not).
2. White women voted for Cuccinneli than McAuliffe – Again, why is that surprising? Most whites in VA are Republican (openly identified or closeted), therefore, it stands to reason that white women (who are also mostly Republican) would vote for the Republican candidate! 56% of white women in the entire US voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 for the same reason.
Instead of focusing on the absolute figure of white women voting for Cuccinneli, we should focus on the fact that the proportion of white women who voted for the Dem candidate INCREASED relative to the last VA race held in 2009. Think about this – PBO won the state of VA TWICE where Bill Clinton lost! This suggests a trend (even among whites) towards Democrats and away from the GOP in the state of VA. And this should be the significant take-home message from this race. No one should expect a Dem candidate to win in a landslide in a purple state like VA (especially in an off year!). A win is a win, and it’s a GOOD sign for Democrats.
3. Bill de Blasio’s win is FAR more significant than Christie’s NJ win. The media will shy away from discussing de Blasio because it is simply to painful for them to even consider what that win (and the near 50% margin) means for the GOP, who had won the NYC mayoral races for the last FIVE elections. NYT had a very lukewarm “de Blasio is elected Mayor of NY” headline, which told me all I needed to know.
So the media is NOT happy – regardless of what they spin, or pretend to think, last night was not a good night for the GOP or the media. You can know when the media is not happy based on the number of anti-Obama narratives they are pushing at a given moment. And their one-sided almost exclusive focus on the NJ race without providing proper context is VERY telling. They know deep down that PBO’s influence is beginning to show up in state and local races, and it’s bothering them immensely. Their ability to influence outcomes of election is waning, and dramatically so. The population demographics are shifting, and the public is becoming more aware – despite huge numbers of people who are still apathetic.
Perfect summation of last night, hopefruit. You need a column in the Washington Post or NYT. Seriously, this is so much better analysis than Ezra or any one else on the white women vote, the trends and the impact on 2014 and 16. Even the relatively good columnists (Eugene Robinson, Krugman, E.J. Dionne and ?? lol) are often more interested in writing in a cynical style or don’t have all the facts or are just plain wrong.
“Instead of focusing on the absolute figure of white women voting for Cuccinneli, we should focus on the fact that the proportion of white women who voted for the Dem candidate INCREASED relative to the last VA race held in 2009.”
I don’t think that is the issue at all. That is an out.
Women (in this case, white women) should vote based on what is in their interest. Your political affiliation should not matter. Why the heck would you want someone probing your vagina whenever they want without your consent?
Something is wrong with that picture. Seriously.
Nospin, we are not talking about what *we think SHOULD* be these white women’s interests. We are talking about what IS, and what has always been based on raw demographics and trends. Most of these married white women who are also Republican are more *interested* in keeping their tax breaks, keeping Blacks and minorities away from their schools and neighborhoods, than anything to do with vaginal probes. Dammit they will take 10 vaginal probes a week if it means they get to keep their fancy mansions and exclusive, pristine neighborhoods and superior education for their children. That’s the point I’m making. The white people who consistently vote GOP, ARE voting for what they consider to be their interests.
Your interests are not theirs. MY interests are not theirs.
Again right on the money hf. white GOP women want to keep their $$$ and exclusive schools. retaining privilege is what drives them.
And THAT is part of the story too HF. I’ve thought who is going to vote for the GOP? They’re doing their best to alienate women, and hard working poor folks and struggling middle class folks. How much will they take of the party that whores for their corporate interest? Takes money and food from them to give to the already bloated wealthy. How does the Log Cabin Republican continue to promote the rabid anti-gay pro- homophobic GOP candidates. VOTE Romny etc.
You summed it up perfectly their core interest is based on fear of black and brown people, keeping their economic breaks in place or still belonging to the club- I’m a republican. Their self interest are not what you’d think it would be. And that is WHY the GOP still has hope of winning races, and is still in the game 2016. They count on ramping up the fear, suppressing the vote of minorities and women and stealing races here and there. The ground game is essential.
I too think your summations are right on the money. I always gain some insight from you hopefruit2. Oh and good morning everyone!
Hopefruit, I get that there were more white women who voted dems this time however, the majority voted Repuplican even when it was clear that that republicans did not represent women’s (regardless of melanin count) interest. My point is that is a big problem. Huge. What is the underlying reason? It has to be more than just tax breaks, keeping Blacks and minorities away from their schools and neighborhoods. I am sure that some feel that way but the majority? I don’t know.
The question then becomes how do you change that?
It is alarming that minorities and young people are the ones seeming to hold back the crazies. In fact, it is critical that minorities continue to participate otherwise it would be easy to revert back to Republican control. Not everyone has President Obama’s ability to reach people and connect in a way that pushes them to look past party and to give him a chance based on hope.
Short version, Dems have a lot of work to do in 2014 AND especially in 2016 with each demographic.
It takes A LOT for a person to switch parties. I would guess these white women are life-long Republicans where this issue lined up with their religious beliefs. You can’t turn the ship around overnight no matter the issue; the trend is the most important thing.
Nospin, Hopefruit’s point is that the movement overall is “toward” Dems. We need to take the long view and not become discouraged by one statistic–especially when a Dem won the governorship. Today we made progress, in 2014 our progress will be greater because–guess what?–the non white population is growing and young people keep turning 18. These are the inexorable demographics that favor the Dems. And any time there’s a Dem governor there is less voter suppression in elections and bigger steps toward voting rights. If Charlie Crist wins in Fl., you will see massive efforts to make voting easier in 2016.
One more thing I would add and that is that in NJ as everywhere, no one likes to vote for a loser (meaning the loser of the race not a characterization of the person!). That’s why the 3rd party generally polls much higher than the actual day of the vote. I think Christie had that fact in his favor as Ms.Buono never polled close to him and therefore some might have decided to pull the lever for the expected winner of the race.
Hopefruit. You’ve got it exactly right in my humble opinion. Beautifully stated.
The more they lose the harder they sell the lie that somehow they are winning.
And don’t forget—–Crispy eliminated Cory Booker’s coattails by putting the senator’s race on a previous day!!!
How would Crispy have fared with the charismatic Cory on the same ballot??
That’s exactly right, Vicki. Cory’s coattails would have dramatically changed the night. Vigorous support from the Democratic Party of NJ would have changed the trajectory for Buono. This race was essentially “fixed” by a corrupt state party. They thought they could “use” a good woman and systematically undermine her. I hope she writes a scathing expose of the frauds in NJ. The Dem presidential candidate will by pass that party structure like the plague.
SPOT ON!
Exactly – the TREND is in the D’s favor, which should be the take-home message from last night.
Rise and Shiiiiiiine!
http://theobamadiary.com/2013/11/06/rise-and-shine-659/