Raw Story: American University professor Allan Lichtman is on a winning streak spanning nearly three decades …. Lichtman created a formula that has correctly predicted the winner of each election since 1984, beginning with the reelection of President Ronald Reagan. The formula that predicted Obama’s 2008 win is again showing that the incumbent president will win the election, despite the term-low approval rating Obama has been maintaining for past weeks.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman said.

His model … relies on 13 “keys” that gauge the performance of the sitting president’s party. If six or more of these aspects are in the party’s favor, the candidate they present will win. Nine of the keys fall in Obama’s favor, Lichtman said – more than enough for reelection.

Created in 1981 and first tested against the 1984 election, Lichtman’s model hasn’t failed yet. Even in 1992, when President George H.W. Bush was riding a wave of popularity and widely expected to win, Lichtman thought otherwise.


Thank you Esmerelda 😉

43 Responses to “supermodel”

  1. August 30, 2011 at 12:21 pm

    Oh he’s going to win, because he has us, right? And we’ll work very hard at informing the rest of this country of all that he’s done for all of us and how much more he’ll get to do with an additional 4 years.. and if that doesn’t convince people- then we have Perry, Bachmann, Romney to help persuade them 😉

    • August 30, 2011 at 6:11 pm

      “…and if that doesn’t convince people- then we have Perry, Bachmann, Romney to help persuade them.”

      I hope so, Sherijr. Because I’ve seen some real, well FOOLS (I’m being charitable here) who still insist that a) President Obama is just as bad as the GOP Presidential field and b) feel that if the GOP wins next year and brings down the US, it’ll be a good thing because the people will _finally_ rebel and bring about a wonderful society.

      • 3 Anonymous
        August 30, 2011 at 7:22 pm

        Some people just cant stand the fact that the national news anchors dont spend full time talking about them.

        Obama is the real deal. Perhaps the finest president and man who has served in the White House in living memory (Although Eisenhower wasn’t a bad human being). The current GOP is a hot tranny mess and won’t get any better any time soon. Even when they win they lose. Look at the Tea Party approval ratings plummeting now. When that little fraud finally goes under what will the GOP offer up next?

      • August 30, 2011 at 8:24 pm

        Marc, So have I. I had a gay couple tell me that DADT would have been passed by Bush if he was still in office. They voted for Obama. Excuse my french, but it is a “bitcha” out there. In some quarters on the left, PBO has not accomplished anything. NADA. We know it is BS. For most of these idiots, they will come home when they see how bad some of these repugs would be if elected. That certainly included Romney.

        The Naderites will probably vote for Nader. Just like the piece earlier today in terms of the Ron Paul scenario.

        • 5 EDP4BHO
          August 30, 2011 at 10:30 pm

          Dorothy, what do you think explains all the lunacy out there about PBO? He has/is achieving all that he set out to do. What do these people want? I like to hear others’ opinions besides my own, just to get a sense of some reality.

          • August 30, 2011 at 10:43 pm

            EDP a longshoreman who started writing down his observation kinda said it: “Passionate hatred can give meaning and purpose to an empty life. Thus people haunted by the purposelessness of their lives try to find a new content not only by dedicating themselves to a holy cause but also by nursing a fanatical grievance. A mass movement offers them unlimited opportunities for both.”
            Eric Hoffer (1902 – 1983)

            • 7 overseasgranny
              August 31, 2011 at 3:58 am

              Now that was one smart longshoreman, that Eric Hoffer 🙂 John McShame fits the fanatical grievance part; he will never get over being beaten by “that one”.

      • 8 EDP4BHO
        August 30, 2011 at 10:27 pm

        Marc, those “fools” are delusional. They often forget what country they live in. They’ll never get more progressive and liberal than President Obama.

    • August 30, 2011 at 8:25 pm

      Yes, He has us and so many others. The thing that I have the biggest problem with is the emoprogs complain just as much as the wing nuts on the right. The msm is just looking for scandal and negativity right now. The month of August has been somewhat hellish.

  2. 10 PoliticalJunkessa
    August 30, 2011 at 12:38 pm

    Never a doubt. I want to see a Democratic House flip and retention in the Senate. Some REAL Democrats working with our President would be nice.

    Clever title: “supermodel” 😉 .

  3. 11 Pamela
    August 30, 2011 at 12:42 pm

    Fine by me! I know who I am voting for… No contest!

  4. 12 SAB
    August 30, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    Just curious if he predicted that George W would win in 2000? I am of the mind he didn’t “win” but that is neither here nor there. 😦

    • 13 Gc
      August 30, 2011 at 12:56 pm

      if so, maybe Lichtman didn’t take into account the thefts and voter suppression and a mastercriminal resembling a ham.

      • August 30, 2011 at 6:12 pm

        That’s pretty much what happened. Gore DID win, despite the best efforts of the GOP, the MSM, and Nader’s foolishness, but sadly, it seems Lichtman did not take into account the Felonious Five and Katherine Harris.

    • 15 Bill
      August 30, 2011 at 1:07 pm

      Al Gore never had the passion behind him that President Obama does and W was not recognized as the fool that he turned out to be. Yet as you note Gore still won.

      • 16 edp4bho
        August 30, 2011 at 2:24 pm

        Al Gore never had the passion “in” him. He to me was boring, but I voted for him, and was dismayed when he didn’t challenge that SC ruling. When Kerry lost, I saw Ohio turn from blue to red in matter of seconds…..that told me that election also was stolen.

        • August 30, 2011 at 6:14 pm

          In all fairness to Gore, just how could he challenge the SC ruling? I’m curious to find out (no rancor or ill intent meant for you!), because from what I know, the SC ruling is final, until it is overturned by another SC ruling. And with the Felonious Five, there was no way that they would give Gore a fair hearing.

          • 18 EDP4BHO
            August 30, 2011 at 10:33 pm

            You know, Marc, I’ll have to get back to you on that because I do remember so many being a bit dismayed that Gore didn’t challenge that ruling. It was IIRC when they went for appeals, and he decided to not push it any further. The details are fuzzzy, so it’ll take a bit of research.

    • 19 JER
      August 30, 2011 at 1:49 pm

      OR/MS Today readers may remember Lichtman, professor of history at The American University in Washington, D.C., from the 2000 presidential election [OR/MS Today, Vol. 27. No. 5, October 2000].

      Up until the last weekend of the 2000 election, most polls and analyses indicated a Bush victory in the popular vote and a razor-thin contest in electoral votes, perhaps producing a win for Gore despite a loss in the popular vote. Only two sources got Gore’s popular vote victory right — the last Zogby poll the weekend before the election and Lichtman’s “Thirteen Keys” model — a year in advance!

      Lichtman authored the popular book, “The Keys to the White House” [1996], updated and reissued to include the analysis of the 1996 election and predictions for 2000. His forecast of a Gore victory in the popular vote is on record at least as early as September 1999, when he stated, “There are five keys against the incumbent party at this time. If the Democrats have a serious contest for the nomination, they will lose; otherwise, they will win.” By July, the prediction was firm, as reported in the October 2000 issue of OR/MS Today. Lichtman’s predictions are based on 13 questions (see box), each with a “yes” or “no” answer. “Yes” answers favor the incumbent party. If five or fewer answers are “no,” the incumbent party retains the presidency; if six or more are “no,” the challenger wins.http://www.orms-today.org/orms-2-04/whitehouse.html

  5. 20 Sheila R.
    August 30, 2011 at 12:53 pm

    Excellent news. Gobama!

  6. August 30, 2011 at 1:02 pm

    It’s all well and good, but we must still maintain our “water tight integrity. We don’t want the ship to spring a leak.
    “Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance.”
    Kurt Vonnegut,

  7. 23 overseasgranny
    August 30, 2011 at 1:04 pm


  8. 24 Bobfr
    August 30, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    Thank you President Obama ….

    “30 Aug 2011
    Joy and tears as Eid arrives in post-Gaddafi Libya

    The first Eid al-Fitr, (the great feast that closes the Muslim holy month of Ramadan), celebrated by Libyans after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi is marked by a shortage of everything from water to money.

    Yet nothing seems able to spoil the celebration of freedom — what the people of Tripoli are calling the Eid of Victory.
    After almost 42 years of Gaddafi’s rule, this Eid will live in Libyans’ memory.

    “Every year we celebrate Eid with new clothes, big meals and home-made sweets. There are shortages this year. But we have managed so far. Thank God this Eid has a special flavour. This Eid we have freedom,” said Adel Kashad, 47, a computer science engineer in an oil company.

    “We are happy. Gaddafi has exhausted us. He killed so many people. He caused so much destruction. All this bloodletting was because he didn’t want to leave. If he had gone peacefully this would not have happened.””

    More at: http://blogs.aljazeera.net/africa/2011/08/24/crucial-moments-save-peace-libya#comment-298706103

    Yes.We.Can. … DO.More.Together!

    • 25 HZ
      August 30, 2011 at 4:46 pm

      Thank you Bobfr for your post. It is amazing that they are still grateful in their celebration. There has to be a “special flavor” in this Eid Fitr for them.

  9. 26 donna dem 4 obama
    August 30, 2011 at 1:15 pm

    They hate government — until they need it

    “As we honor the life and legacy of Dr. King and enshrine his likeness on the Mall. The 1963 jobs and justice coalition, labor, civil rights activists, the religious — as well as youths — must reconvene for a summit and then nonviolently and massively take thousands of resumes to Washington. Put a real face on real needs.”


  10. 27 Anonymous
    August 30, 2011 at 1:19 pm

    Hope this posts.

    I’m delighted to read this chipsticks. I just read a depressing post at kos about the presidents continuing low approval numbers that sounded anything but hopeful. Most of the commenters sounded happily snarkful.


    • 28 Desraye
      August 30, 2011 at 1:45 pm

      Do not read kos. They are a anti-Obama website.

      • 29 Anonymous
        August 30, 2011 at 7:31 pm

        They have distilled down to a residuum of hard core Marxists and Obama haters. Nothing to see at Kos. What a sad shell of a once progressive and useful site.

    • 30 edp4bho
      August 30, 2011 at 2:18 pm

      Yep, and they are exactly who these polls are directed too. I referenced a poll (not by name) on one of yesterday’s posts stating how whites are falling away from PBO, and Dr. Hutchinson on Rev Al stated that 60% of whites still voted for McCain and sidekick, despite Bush’s debacle of a presidency. I got angry, down, skeptical, and decided that we have a very uphill battle ahead. I still feel that, and even PBO alluded to the fight ahead in the next 16, 17 months. That poll, by the way, was an AP poll as I remember correctly (I haven’t looked it up as I don’t do such things), so one can gather from it what one may.

      • 31 jacquelineoboomer
        August 31, 2011 at 9:29 pm

        I’m reading upthread, so not sure what the initial discussion was. But when I hear things from these polls and pundits that whites are falling away from PBO, I remember Tweety and all the others in ’07 and ’08 saying that blacks won’t vote for Barack Obama, since the Clintons were good to the black community – and they didn’t think that we would actually have a black President at this point in time, and wanted to make sure the Democrat (if she were the nominee) could beat the Republican.

        I’m thinking the polls and the pundits are dead wrong, at least half the time!

  11. 32 utaustinliberal
    August 30, 2011 at 1:33 pm

    I know we must still work extra hard to make sure President Obama is re-elected, but hey Lichtman’s predictions are fine by me! 😉

  12. 34 edp4bho
    August 30, 2011 at 2:12 pm

    Oh my, now we have Rev Al (radio) asking what the President should mention in his upcoming address re jobs. We all know Rev Al means well, but I am bewildered by people thinking they know best what he should talk about. I would offer to everyone here, out there, anywhere, to attain a medium to voice their own job-producing program. A few tweeters are pushing back on someone’s idea that he should have done jobs before healthcare and other accomplishments. Thank goodness for sane people.

  13. 35 edp4bho
    August 30, 2011 at 2:32 pm

    Rev Al’s talking with a supporter about how AAs question PBO, holding him by a different standard, and didn’t hold any standard toward their beloved Clinton when he showed moral misconduct in the Oval office. The supporter/caller also noted how it seems everybody thinks they know better what PBO should do. This all brings me back to a rant I had last week or so about AAs not believing we have the same abilities as whites, that PBO somehow can’t think like white men, enough to run the country. It is a sad, sad telling of our epic brainwashing from slavery made to render us inferior. I only wonder what it would take for us to truly believe we have the same God-given brain power as anyone else.

    • 36 HZ
      August 30, 2011 at 4:31 pm

      Hi edp4bho, I concur with your point. I have often been thinking the same thoughts on the issue of why not take a person of any race and define them by their constants in knowledge and how brilliantly they execute that knowledge. President Obama is a very brilliant person who happen to be wrapped in the beautiful brown that matches so many beautiful people of color. And he is the President of the United States. Barack Obama was long invested in his brilliant mind before he even sat in the Oval Office. That is the point that so many and too many just cannot wrap their brains around. I am very hopeful that people will began to realize that this mentality that you speak of will soon vanish for this time in our lives and history. I voted for President Obama because I saw before 2008 that he was a visionary man with a well of knowledge and passion for what he believed in and where he wanted to take this wonderful nation. That he has brains wrapped beautifully with the daily requirement of using those brains yeilds very hard work. That is what we see each day. So the facts will not change about Barack H. Obama. He is biracial, he is brown in his pigment of his skin, he is one of most brilliant minds that I have seen in my lifetime. Then why do we still have to not be able to accept the facts. They are not going away. I have an observation that is so important in how I allow people NOT to close me in when it comes to this President. Do no ever come to me about his color. Do not ever come to me about what he needs to do , especially when for 43 Presidents no one in this nation has ever rode an American President like they are riding this one. Do come to me with that. Do not come to me and tell me he can do more. Hell, we all can do more, but when you have a Ccngress who already has stated that they want him to fail, what can you do and tell low-information, hateful, and vile people who went crazy when Barack H. Obama was elected. Hate, ignorance, and time will destroy a person’s soul. President Obama will not allow any group of people do that to him. And he will not allow these same small minded people keep him from using his God given talents and brains to better this country and this world. So they need to get use to it, and we need to get behind him and bring out the votes needed to re-elect him so that our lives can and will be better. And also that peoples all around this beautiful world lives will be changed for the better. Yes, it is sad, but we have a great and gifted Conductor of this great orchestra , we the people who are willing, very able and capable to make music like no other Conductor has done in the past or ever will do. This is once in a lifetime. So why are we wasting time on these foolish people? We Will No Longer do that. Waste time. We have to much beautiful music to send throughout this great nation and the world under this great and brilliant Conductor of our Business. So let them get angry, talk their silly talk, because they don’t enjoy beautiful brilliant music anyway, and never will. Some people just do not care for the classics. So let them be. I for one enjoy being a ‘whole human being.’ Take the jazz, the opera, the country, the spiritual, gospel,easy listening, hip hop, etcc. Now let’s move on and do our work. Just practice one line or one bar of the composition that our brilliant Conductor, President Barack H. Obama has given us to perform. Do one bar each day, and soon you will be honored to take your seat in the beautiful and brillitant Orchestra of the World conducted by one of most brilliant minds in the world today, President Barack H. Obama. He has already composed himself the Great Composition for America and the World. Now let’s make the music count for the generations and centuries to come. Practice one thing today of his composition. Make a call for POB, e mail a Rep. or Senator for POB, write a thank you note or call the switchboard and tell them you are praying, lifting him up today. And be sure to name something that you know he is working on now, and has not yet been able to get it through. Tell a Government Department that you were on their web site and you notice the great things(name one of
      interest to you) they are doing under this great President. Wear your pin for 2012 wherever you go when you go out where you can. Keep at least 20 things in your purse or wallet to remind people what President Obama has already done. Come on people we have a Performance of a Lifetime on Nov. 2012. We need to be ready and well tuned instruments to participate in this great orchestra under this brilliant Conductor, our beloved 44th President of the United States of America, President Barack H. Obama. This is our time.HZ

      when you go out today. Do something that will move the orchestra further to our Performance Nov. 2012.HZ

      • 37 EDP4BHO
        August 30, 2011 at 10:59 pm

        Many hours have passed until I came across your reply HZ. What do you mean PBO is a composer of beautiful music? You are the composer of beautiful music here on this blog. You have a very beautiful and serene soul, and I want to be like you when I grow up 😀
        Peace, and I’m going on YouTube to listen to Stevie Wonder, my favorite musician. Love ya 😀

  14. 40 Left-Indie
    August 30, 2011 at 3:43 pm

    It will take more black people elected and doing a good job, both at the local and national levels. And they are: look at Booker and D. Patrick. Also leaders of industry. A black woman is the CEO of xerox. Everything takes time. Don’t despair. Before Oprah, nobody could imagine a black woman the queen of day time, sending books to bestseller lists. If, or when, Obama gets another term, I believe he could turn out to be a great president. That will help those who lack imagination to see what could be, see what is.

  15. August 30, 2011 at 8:43 pm

    from his calculations to the universe’s ears.

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