50?! with rasmussen?!

I don’t know of anyone who takes Rasmussen polls seriously – I doubt they do themselves.

Eric Boehlert, 2010 (a senior fellow with Media Matters, a progressive research center): “I don’t think there are Republican polling firms that get as good a result as Rasmussen does. Their data looks like it all comes out of the RNC [Republican National Committee].”

Nate Silver concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver’s model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, which Rasmussen showed the incumbent 13 points ahead, where he in actuality won by 53 – a difference of 40 points, or “the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.”

Still, though, the media loves quoting their numbers when they look particularly poor for the President. But I’m not sure you’ll hear much about this today:

Rasmussen has the President at 50%, up four points in less than a week – and that’s the first time they’ve had him on 50 or over since February 11. And his ‘disapproval’ figure is down seven points in just over a month (it’s still high – 49 – but this is Rasmussen after all). All this with high gas prices?

Whisper it 😉

I’m guessing an urgent internal enquiry has been launched in the company!


PS Remember the media blitz when Gallup had the President on 41% a couple of weeks ago? He’s on 46 today. Up five in a fortnight? Despite gas prices, Libya, etc? How many, eh, ‘Obama recovering in polls!’ stories did you read today? Exactly.


Just to clarify, I’m not saying we should be obsessed with polls, I’m just picking up on that tired old fact that the media only ever make a big deal of them when they’re bad for the President – they’re more encouraging today, so, naturally enough, they’re being ignored.

13 Responses to “50?! with rasmussen?!”

  1. 1 kelly
    May 1, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    I don’t even know what to think of all these polls. Anyway in my state of North Carolina POTUS continues leading all the Repubs that might run and his approval is in the 48=50 margin. This I follow closely cause I want NC to stay blue come 2012.

  2. May 1, 2011 at 1:25 pm

    Polls, schmolls. President ranks 100% in my book.

  3. 4 Jessica
    May 1, 2011 at 1:26 pm

    I think it was his visit to Alabama. When election time cranks up and he starts hitting the road he’ll be fine. I know Obama better relax this summer because starting September 1, 2011 it’s non-stop until November 4th 2012.

  4. 5 Hachikō
    May 1, 2011 at 1:28 pm

    This is what repub insiders know, hence the carnival show. I don’t follow any of these polls. I trust my President 110% and I’ll do everything I can to ensure his re-election. That’s all I’m focused on.

  5. 6 GGail
    May 1, 2011 at 2:26 pm

    (in my best brough accent) “we don’t need no stinkin polls”

  6. 7 Fred
    May 1, 2011 at 2:27 pm

    fark the polls;excuse me people

  7. May 1, 2011 at 2:37 pm

    I love being able to come to places like this that has an absence of trolls, either Republican or Democratic concern trolls. I wish I had been here last night as I heard you guys had a blast as opposed to being on OFA. I have learned my
    lesson. I am wondering though when the far left will do something other than criticize the President. They use “their voices” for the wrong reasons. It amazes me when Democratic concern trolls preface their comments with “we” and I correct them everytime and say and say no “you.”

    Anyway polls will continue to fluctuate, but I strongly believe President Obama will be re-elected. I am
    surprised(not really) with all of the Progressives like Weiner and crew criticizing the President’s decisions why
    they haven’t dared to jump into the arena. Maybe they will, but I bet they won’t even consider it. They
    are all bark, no bite. The President can chew his opponents up with his smile alone.

  8. 10 collegekay
    May 1, 2011 at 2:37 pm

    I giving the side eye to polls in general. They change so much. I’m happy that his numbers have remained this high after all the crises he’s had to deal with though.

    By the way, here’s a preview of the interview with Oprah TOMORROW

  9. 11 aamom
    May 1, 2011 at 3:42 pm

    Regarding Rasmussen polls…today’s uptick I firmly believed was due to the Prez response to the birth certificate. Remember it was a live event on every television network. I strongly believe there still remains open-hearted white folks and even some Republicans that do not enjoy watching raw racism. Remember their response to Katrina. Me thinks same thing here. Donald may have picked off a scab for some but for others he made them recoil in horror.

    • 12 Lovepolitics2008
      May 1, 2011 at 5:44 pm

      I think your analysis is accurate. The difference with last week is the birth certificate mess.

  10. 13 Lamb
    May 1, 2011 at 10:50 pm

    The only poll that matters is the poll right before Nov 4th election day. When folks bring up Obama’s poll numbers, especailly when they are in the low 40s. I always bring up the poll numbers of Dubya and even Clinton at this time in their presidencies. Dubya was re-elected with a 35% approval rating and Clinton’s ratings went down in the 30s as well. Obama’s approval ratings aren’t even that bad as the some in the media like to claim it is. Especially compared to the previous presidents.

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