Consumer Confidence in U.S. Improves, Businesses Expand in Recovery Signs
Bloomberg (extracts): Confidence among U.S. consumers rose in November to the highest level in five months and a gauge of business activity unexpectedly climbed, signaling the recovery is taking hold heading into 2011.
Gains in spending that are giving retailers like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. a boost during the holiday-shopping season are more likely to continue into next year as households sense that job and income prospects are improving.
Factories, which helped lead the economy out of the recession, are still bolstering the expansion. The Chicago ISM’s business barometer rose to 62.5 in November, exceeding even the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Manufacturing may keep accelerating as exports grow and companies invest in new equipment, sustaining the recovery. The group’s production gauge climbed to the highest level since February 2005, and the index of new orders rose to a three-year high.
“Manufacturers still have orders coming in and they have to be filled,” said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies Group Inc. in New York. “There is a lot of foreign demand and a lot of business demand.”
The economy expanded at a 2.5 percent pace in the third quarter, more than initially estimated, the Commerce Department said last week. Consumer spending rose at the highest rate in almost four years and wage and salary gains were revised up for the past two quarters.
Meanwhile…..
Politico: The Congressional Budget Office has a positive prediction for the Obama administration: The government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program is seen as costing taxpayers $25 billion, which the nonpartisan group says is “substantially less” than previous estimates.
The CBO says in a new report that the costs of TARP’s transactions to the federal government are well below the $66 billion that was last estimated in August.
“Clearly, it was not apparent when the TARP was created two years ago that the cost would turn out to be this low,” the report says. “Because the financial system stabilized and then improved, the amount of funds used by the TARP was well below the $700 billion initially authorized, and the outcomes of most transactions made through the TARP were favorable for the federal government.”
The reduction in the estimated cost is attributed to a few developments, including a lower cost in assistance to AIG and the auto industry.
The CBO’s estimate is also substantially lower than the Office of Management and Budget’s latest estimate of $113 billion. The nonpartisan office says this is because “the market value of assets held by the government has increased and several recipients of TARTP funds – most notably General Motors and AIG – have significantly restructured the Treasure’s investment since May 31, 2010.”
The Obama Diary 
Pretty much along the time-line the President spoke about when he first took office. He’s doing everything right – except helping fellow democrats win elections. Not that that’s his fault. But you know the GOP will take credit for anything positive that happens – somehow…
Oh, and I love that pic with Bam in shades!
Only 20% of Democrats voted this last election – that’s the level of apathy in this country. And a poll conducted immediately after the mid-terms showed that many people didn’t even realize that the Republicans had taken over the House, and many were horrified. This President lost his voice campaigning for Democrats. As the saying goes: “You can lead a horse to water, you can’t force it to drink”.
But I agree with you that he looks great in shades! 🙂
The President is doing his best. He’s taking the long view and laying down a strong foundation for a sustained and strong economic rebound – for all. The problem is, people are impatient, can’t see the forest for the trees, and just love to complain and criticize.
I just got into a couple arguments with “progressives” on twitter about the President calling for bi-partisanship. These people must not have known who they were voting for. Must not have read one book he wrote. Listen to one speech he made. They just projected their own desires onto him and now that he’s performing the way he said he would, but contrary to the way they want, they’re all complaining about primarying him and calling him “appeaser” and “weak” and claim he looking for the GOP to “love him.” Jesus.
I’ve come to realize that some on the left are no different or better than the rightwing. They want to Obama to behave the same way Bush did to push through his agenda, just as long as he’s doing it to push through the left’s agenda.
Whatever happened to being different? It’s not just important to have the right ideas, it’s just as important to implement those ideas the right way.
Good points.
Excellent post, Chip. 🙂
THIS PRESIDENT IS REALLY NOT DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN…HE IS IN A PARTY OF HIS OWN…THATS WHAT I ADMIRE ABOUT HIM…HE’S NOT LETTING THE LEFT OR THE RIGHT DEFINE HIM…HE’S ONLY TRYING TO DO WHATS RIGHT FOR ALL AMERICANS AND MOVE US FOWARD….YES AND I DID READ ALL HIS BOOKS…I KNEW WHAT I WAS GETTING…AND I AM STILL PROUD OF MY VOTE AND WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA/BIDEN IN 2012…NO DOUBT!!!
HAPPY TO BE ON THIS WONDERFUL JOURNEY WITH #44… THIS IS WHERE AMAZING HAPPENS!!! 🙂
Nice post! I totally agree!
i’ve always thought that lynn. Everybody want’s to define him, but he not allowing them too. He moves to his own drum beat
You are so on point!
In the Politico rationale for the lower cost of TARP, I notice that they neglected to mention that a large part of the recovery of TARP funds was a direct result of President Obama and Secretary Geithner implementing procedures that would encourage banks to repay the money and actually monitoring the money. When Bush and Paulson initially doled out the TARP funds, they didn’t even monitor where it was going, they refused to cooperate with Elizabeth Warren’s watchdog commission, and they really didn’t intend to get that money back from the banks. President Obama changed all that.
You’re right Thro67, I actually hate linking anything from that right-wing rag, but it kind of amused me that even they were forced to concede today that TARP wasn’t quite the financial catastrophe they hoped it would be.
“…Right wing rag”…so true Chipsticks, so true!
Thanks for all the positive news. Sad it is only us that knows what an incredible leader President Obama is. What we need now is to score some big political points to kick off the next two years.